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11 Aug 2014
Looking to fade near-term AUD gains - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The FX Team at TDS still favour looking to fade near-term AUD gains, with a retest of the May lows at 0.9205 while below 0.9330.
Key Quotes
"AUDUSD spot market was choppy—the mid-week bounce in the AUD exceeding slightly resistance at 0.9330 before tumbling again—and the AUD’s ability to lift itself from the intraday lows at the end of the week (a potential “hammer” low or “doji” candle signal) suggests scope for some short-term AUD gains early this week."
"We think strengthening bear trend momentum on the shorter-term studies should cap gains in the low 0.93 area, however."
"We still favour looking to fade near-term AUD gains and for spot to retest the May lows at 0.9205 while the market remains below 0.9330.
"A broader perspective of AUDUSD’s recent price moves highlights two key points from a longer-term technical point of view 1) the medium-term bull trend in place since the start of the year has been broken and 2) the mid-year reversal in the AUD was emphatic technically, via a bearish key reversal week."
"The AUD has made minimal progress so far in retracing the H1 2014 rally. But losses (sustained this week) below 0.9305 (23.6% Fibonacci support) suggest the risks here are geared towards a drop back to 0.9182 (38.2% retracement and in line with the implications of the short-term chart) at least in the next few weeks."
Key Quotes
"AUDUSD spot market was choppy—the mid-week bounce in the AUD exceeding slightly resistance at 0.9330 before tumbling again—and the AUD’s ability to lift itself from the intraday lows at the end of the week (a potential “hammer” low or “doji” candle signal) suggests scope for some short-term AUD gains early this week."
"We think strengthening bear trend momentum on the shorter-term studies should cap gains in the low 0.93 area, however."
"We still favour looking to fade near-term AUD gains and for spot to retest the May lows at 0.9205 while the market remains below 0.9330.
"A broader perspective of AUDUSD’s recent price moves highlights two key points from a longer-term technical point of view 1) the medium-term bull trend in place since the start of the year has been broken and 2) the mid-year reversal in the AUD was emphatic technically, via a bearish key reversal week."
"The AUD has made minimal progress so far in retracing the H1 2014 rally. But losses (sustained this week) below 0.9305 (23.6% Fibonacci support) suggest the risks here are geared towards a drop back to 0.9182 (38.2% retracement and in line with the implications of the short-term chart) at least in the next few weeks."