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15 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: USD/JPY year-end forecast at 110.00 – UBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “In Japan, weekly portfolio data releases from the Ministry of Finance will continue on May 10, as is the key date to watch, when a bumper set of releases should offer much better visibility.” Indeed, not one, but two weekly flow reports are due then (after the Golden Week holiday delays publication of the first of the two reports). More importantly, more detailed monthly data will break down flows by investment destination and investor category (banks, lifers, non-life insurance, and toushins).
Even if evidence for outflows is still scant by then, June 10 will provide a double-dose of additional clarity. As usual, monthly Ministry of Finance data will cover “designated major investors”, but balance of payments data will go one step further covering an even broader range of investors (although at the cost of a one month lag). “So yen bears have plenty to look forward to and we stand over our end-2013 USD/JPY forecast of 110.” Berry adds.
Even if evidence for outflows is still scant by then, June 10 will provide a double-dose of additional clarity. As usual, monthly Ministry of Finance data will cover “designated major investors”, but balance of payments data will go one step further covering an even broader range of investors (although at the cost of a one month lag). “So yen bears have plenty to look forward to and we stand over our end-2013 USD/JPY forecast of 110.” Berry adds.