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28 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: Still looking for fresh highs in AUD and NZD - Nomura
Nomura Strategist Geoffrey Kendrick has reiterated his non-consensus call for fresh highs in AUD/USD and NZD/USD later this year.
He feels that despite price action, recent local news has further emboldened his view. He notes that Australia CAPEX data were strong overnight, noting that not only is the mining investment peak not upon us, but the required re-balancing is also occurring. he thinks that the risks are skewing the next RBA move being a rate hike.. In New Zealand he adds that data out yesterday showed no NZD selling by the RBNZ in January, and the puzzling selling in Nov/Dec has disappeared. Further, milk auctions are booming (and will continue to do so) as auction volumes fall.
He feels that despite price action, recent local news has further emboldened his view. He notes that Australia CAPEX data were strong overnight, noting that not only is the mining investment peak not upon us, but the required re-balancing is also occurring. he thinks that the risks are skewing the next RBA move being a rate hike.. In New Zealand he adds that data out yesterday showed no NZD selling by the RBNZ in January, and the puzzling selling in Nov/Dec has disappeared. Further, milk auctions are booming (and will continue to do so) as auction volumes fall.