Forex Flash: EUR/USD, the higher the LTRO repayment, the higher the Euro – JPM

As noted by JP Morgan analyst Jan Loeys: “Early repayments for LTRO-II will be announced Friday, and we expect €100-€125bn,” Jan says, while EUR/USD trades last at 1.3355, mostly unchanged so far for the week, with US markets closed Monday over holiday.

“The higher the figure, the higher the euro,” the analyst suggests, adding: “though peripheral banks may be reluctant to prepay much ahead of Italian elections on February 24-25. Thus EUR/USD, which overshot after LTRO-1 repayment, should stay in the low 1.30s,” he concludes.

Feb 19, 2013

Forex Flash: Still long way till 'risk on - risk off' paradigm over - HSBC

Risk On – Risk Off, described as RORO by HSBC, "has been one of the most dramatic features of financial markets since the collapse of Lehman in 2008, a phenomenon of high multi-asset correlations which has caused huge problems for investors forcing them to reassess their investment process" the bank notes.

Forex: AUD/USD stuck around 1.03 ahead of RBA minutes

AUD/USD is last at 1.0304, flat so far for the week, with US markets having been closed over Monday. The pair dipped yesterday to fresh 4-day lows at 1.0275, recovering from there till late London session highs at 1.0315. AUD/USD awaits now RBA monetary policy minutes at 00:30 GMT, looking for hints for next meeting. With cash rate futures implying less and less chances of a rate cut by next March meeting, lastly around the 30%, and most analysts consulted by Bloomberg calling for a halt, and probably cutting by next May meeting, all eyes will be on the RBA minutes in hour and a half.