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Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – UBS, Commerzbank and Westpac

The single currency continues to range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3325 on Monday, after the G20 meeting finished without major announcements or fireworks. Almost empty docket ahead in the day for the euro zone would leave the euro to the mercy of the risk trends.

The Swiss bank UBS remains neutral on the cross, with Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry adding, “There is strong support at 1.3270. Only a closing break below this would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.3187. Resistance is at 1.3393 ahead of 1.3520”.

In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, suggests, “The 1.3273/56 band is key support near term… This is likely to hold the initial test – however the risks have increased that we will see an eventual break down through here towards the more important 1.3202 7 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the up move completely”.

Against the backdrop of the last release of the GDP figures and arguments surrounding the FX policies, Sean Callow, Strategist at Westpac, commented, “In the week ahead EUR will also be hampered by Italy’s 24-25 Feb election but the shrinking ECB balance sheet should limit downside multi-week, to 1.32”.

Forex Flash: USD/JPY in focus after G20 verdict – UBS

The USD/JPY resumed its uptrend overnight in the wake of the weekend G20 statement, which made no explicit mention of Japan or the weakening yen. In fact, the right to use "monetary policy" to ensure "domestic price stability" was enshrined in the text. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “That does not mean countries may exploit this as a vehicle specifically to influence exchange rates, however entrenched deflation in Japan would appear to provide justification enough for more easing.”
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Forex: NZD/USD trading negatively at 0.8426/28

The NSD/USD closed out the previous week on a negative note, which looked to continue Monday, following the pair’s uneven performance into European trading. In recent moments, the cross has fallen nearly 13 pips off of the 0.8443 level to trade presently at 0.8426/28, recording a loss of -0.20% on the day.
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