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Forex Flash: USD risks appear neutral in short-term – Westpac

According to Global Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac, “While we still struggle to build a compelling multi-week case for sustained USD upside amid suppressed global volatility and abundant liquidity conditions, short-term USD risks appear more neutral. Draghi’s comments that the EUR’s rise may also alter the ECB’s risk assessment on price stability and that the Bank is sensitive to the money market impact of LTRO repayments suggests another ECB easing cannot be ruled out.”

The 24/25 February Italian election and the risks of a more fractured government should also induce some caution. Additionally, “The USD may draw some strength from the FOMC minutes as well – they are likely to repeat that a few members favor slowing or stopping asset purchases by mid-2013 (we suspect asset purchases will ultimately continue well into 2013H2 as the jobs market fails to deliver but that won’t be clear for some months yet).” Callow adds.

Forex: EUR/USD muted after US jobs data

The single currency keeps the 1.3340 region after the positive weekly report from the US labour market, with Initial Claims dropping below expectations to 341K in the week ended February 10...
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Forex Flash: Credit gridlock scenario – Goldman Sachs

A sluggish post-bust recovery, ultra-low risk-free yields and significant corporate surpluses have meant that non-financial corporate credit has been the asset of choice for many investors in the post-financial-crisis period. EM sovereign credit, while a smaller and less liquid market than US corporate credit, shares similar features. According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “As a consequence, a steady tightening in spreads and the ultra-low level of risk-free yields have pushed yields on corporate credit and EM US Dollar credits to decade lows.”
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